W.Minh Tuan
When Japanese Prime Minister Abe became Prime Minister of Japan in 2012-2020 second time, he wanted to impress the Japanese people, and the people of the world, that he was a talented leader, so he issued his new economic policy, named after himself, called the Abenomic- that is the Abenomic Policy.
Moreover, he wanted to make an even greater impression of that Abenomic policy, so he introduced 3 policies of Abenomic, called 3 arrows.
Among the famous traditional martial arts of Japan, there are martial arts that are famous in the world, and are popular and studied all over the world, such as Judo, karate, aikido, and Japanese archery with a bow that is nearly 2 meters long and can be shot more than 100 meters away.
Mr. Abe wants to impress the Abenomic economic policy, so he uses 3 arrows to name the 3 contents of Abenomic, implying that his 3 economic policies will have the stormy power of 3 arrows, and will make the Japanese economy grow stormily like 3 arrows just shot from the bow.
What is the 3-arrow Abenomic economic policy?
That is:
1- Devalue the yen, to make Japanese goods cheaper when exported, and therefore, sell more goods to the world market.
2- Increase government investment, that is, increase government spending, to pump more money to the market, and to make inflation to increase to more than 2%, so that to promote economic growth.
3- Restructuring the economy.
Mr. Abe’s flatterers, supporters immediately joined in, trying to praise Mr. Abe’s three-arrow policy.
But the immediate results of Japan’s socio-economic situation showed that all three of Mr. Abe’s arrows failed miserably, the yen depreciated miserably, inflation increased by more than 2%, the lives of the Japanese people were in ruins, GDP growth of more than 1% a year could not compensate for inflation of more than 2%, sometimes up to more than 3%, 4%.
Mr. Abe and his fanatic advisers thought that if inflation increased to more than 2%, if the yen was devalued, it would be beneficial for exports, and would promote growth.
But if it is beneficial for exports, because exports are cheaper, it is harmful for imports, because imports will increase in price, and it is harmful for consumers because prices will escalate, and every day when going to the market, they will be pickpocketed because prices have increased.
In 2012, before Mr. Abe implemented the stupid Abenomic policy, the yen was very high, about 70 yen to 1 US dollar. But now, after more than 10 years of implementing the Abenomic policy, it takes more than 150 Japanese yen to exchange for 1 USD, and the price of consumer goods in Japan has skyrocketed by more than 10% so far.
The Japanese economy in 2012, before implementing Abenomic, was still the 3rd largest in the world, after the US, and China, but now, since 2024, it has dropped to the 4th largest in the world, after the US, China, and Germany.
In early March 2025, the Japanese Government had to release 150,000 tons of rice that the Government had reserved for times of crop difficulties and the country’s crisis. Now, the Japanese Government has to sell that reserve rice to the market to reduce rice prices, to reduce the burden of inflation and rising prices for the Japanese people.
And the real wages of Japanese workers continued to decrease by more than 3% in early 2025.
Thus, the Abenomic policy of using “Increasing inflation” and devaluing the yen as a driving force for GDP growth has had the opposite negative effect, which is to destroy the economy, reduce the purchasing power of money, and make the lives of the Japanese people more miserable and difficult.
Now, from Japan, looking back at Vietnam, we see Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is setting a GDP growth target of over 8% this year 2025, and Prime Minister Chinh said that to achieve this 8% growth target, we Vietnam may have to sacrifice inflation, we have to push inflation up to over 4%.
This is a wrong calculation, repeating the mistake of Japan’s stupid Abenomic policy.
Let’s do simple addition, subtraction, multiplication and division, 8% growth, 4% inflation, then real growth is only 4%.
And for salaried workers, wages do not increase by 8% like GDP growth, but prices will increase by 4% due to 4% inflation, which means that workers will have their pockets picked, losing 4% of their income.
General Secretary To Lam was right when he commented on the value of the Vietnamese currency, that the Vietnamese currency has depreciated too much, has no exchange value on the international market, and that is very bad for Vietnam’s economic growth.
But now, Prime Minister Chinh, just because he wants to have a nice number of “GDP growth of 8%”, plans to sacrifice inflation, plans to push inflation up to 4%, which will only make the lives of the Vietnamese people more miserable, the people more insecure, and Vietnamese society more unstable.
Vietnam is proud to have only one party in power, so it is very stable politically.
But high inflation, difficult lives for the people, causing economic instability, will lead to political instability.
Vietnam will not be destroyed by many political parties, but will be destroyed because the people are restless, because inflation is high, because the lives of the people are miserable.
General Secretary To Lam has just directed the abolition of tuition fees for the people from September 2025, which has been enthusiastically supported by the Vietnamese people, and praised by international friends, truly “Vietnam is a state of the people, by the people, for the people“.
But with the prospect of inflation increasing by more than 4% in 2025, it is likely that all the benefits for the people thanks to General Secretary To Lam’s tuition fee exemption will be spent on daily purchases of vegetables, tubers, meat, fish, house rent, electricity, water, telephone, etc.
The exempted tuition fees will quickly disappear in the storm of inflation, the storm of Vietnamese currency devaluation, because of the mistaken policy of “increasing inflation by 4%” of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.///