W.Minh Tuan

During more than 2 years of war in Ukraine, it has been shown that the Russian army is not very good, and the Ukrainian army is not very bad.

Regarding weapons, it also shows that Russian weapons are not as scary as people first thought.

But the Ukrainian army also revealed its weakness, which is that they used American and Western weapons that were too poor, too wasteful, shot too much up to clouds and wind, and had low weapon efficiency.

And the weakest point of the Ukrainian army is that they do not know how to fight effectively, and do not dare to fight, neither at lower level soldiers, nor at higher command levels, nor even up to the commanding general of the Ukrainian army.

None of them Ukraine have a top general who is so good, so brave, so calm, so clever, so creative.

Vietnamese people have a fighting motto:

1-“Fight where we prepare, not where the enemy prepares”,

And:

2-“No need to fight for land”,

And:

3-“Strike to create a good condition, eventually leading to a General Counterattack”.

Currently, Ukrainians do not know the above 3 ways of fighting in Vietnam.

The Ukrainians made the mistake of fighting where Russia prepared, and not fighting where Ukraine prepared, so Ukraine lost in the village of Bakhmut in May 2023, and lost in the village of Avdiivka in February 2024.

This town, or village of Bakhmut, had no strategic significance, neither for the Russians nor for the Ukrainians.

It only has meaning in terms of map beauty, that is, looking on the map of the areas occupied by Russian troops in Ukraine, that Bakhmut village makes the Russian-occupied areas not convex and not in a precarious position, not comb teeth, which shows that the Russian army occupied a continuous, interconnected area that is quite flat, looks good on the map.

Because keeping the occupied map beautiful like that, according to the Russian army’s way of thinking, is success in war, so the Russian army prepared very carefully and methodically, concentrating forces, weapons, ammunition, army for that meaningless little village of Bakhmut.

That means Bakhmut is where Russia prepares the battlefield.

According to Vietnam’s way of fighting, “Do not fight where the enemy prepares“, the Ukrainian army does not need to fight to gain land there, but should “fight where we prepare”, somewhere else, not Bakhmut.

However, the Ukrainian army made a mistake in this way of fighting, so it suffered a painful defeat, and had to withdraw from Bakhmut in May of last year 2023.

Now, in February 2024, with another strategically meaningless village, called Avdiivka, about 100 km from Bakhmut village, the Russian army is also carefully preparing to capture this village, to connect Bakhmut with Avdiivka, becoming a flat connecting place, without territorial conflicts comb teeth.

And the Ukrainian army repeated the same mistake as in Bakhmut, trying to rush in to attack the village of Avdiivka, where the Russian army had carefully prepared the battlefield, so they lost miserably, and the Ukrainian army fled again in chaos again like at Bakhmut.

And looking at Ukraine’s current situation, we see that the Ukrainian army is building trenches and defense lines opposite the Russian army to try to fight and hold ground, fighting to hold every meter of land.

Holding ground was the second strategic mistake of the Ukrainian army.

Let’s look back at the Napoleonic War in 1812, Napoleon’s French army invaded Russia, General Kutuzov’s Russian army only retreated. Napoleon’s army invaded Russia nearly 1,000 km deep, but the Russian army still retreated. Finally, the Russian army stopped Napoleon’s army at the village of Borodino, and exhausted Napoleon’s French army at Borodino battlefield.

That means the Russian army does not need to fight and win land with Napoleon’s army, just let Napoleon’s army flood into Russia’s vast territory, because the more land Napoleon’s army takes, the more its forces are spread thin, and the supply lines become weaker, logistics are taking longer.

Now, the Ukrainians should also let the Russian army temporarily occupy a lot of land and territory. The more the Russian army will be spread thin to occupy and protect the land, the more the supply logistics line will be stretched, the more difficult, and that is advantageous for the Ukrainian army.

But Ukrainians do not know this military art, Ukrainians do not have a talented general like Russia’s General Kutuzov more than 200 years ago.

The Ukrainians also do not know how to “create a good condition, good position that will eventually lead to a general counter-attack“, but they hastily planned a “counter-offensive” from April 2023, which has so far fizzled and failed.

Vietnamese people always fight small battles first, to test the enemy’s forces, and to let North Vietnam army gradually mature and gain experience in fighting.

And only after winning a series of small battles was it possible to change the course of the war, and finally plan the General Counterattack, general counter-Offensive.

But the Ukrainian army did not do that, there were no small battles to create a positive position, but immediately, they planned a “counter-attack, counter offensive” – not a “General counter-attack”, and had no meaning in terms of war strategy, as well as tactics.

Now that it has been almost a year of “counter-offensive”, the Ukrainians have hardly achieved much success, but suffered painful defeats in the villages of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, so the soldiers’ morale has collapsed, and the Ukraine people’s morale is also low, collapsed, and the countries supporting Ukraine were also depressed and became negative.

And now, in March 2024, Ukrainian troops are preparing a new “counterattack”.

Ukrainians should abandon the so-called “counterattack”, but should create a way of fighting “fight small battles to create good position”, preparing a series of small battles where we prepare, not where the enemy prepares, to create positive position.

By the end of 2024, a plan for a “General Counteroffensive” will be made.

At that time, the Russian army will flee in disarray, and Ukraine will regain all lost territory in just a few weeks.///