W. Minh Tuan
Minister of Public Security To Lam was elected President on May 22, 2024, replacing the young President Vo Van Thuong who was dismissed for corruption. Then, on August 3, 2024, at the extraordinary Central Conference, To Lam was elected to concurrently hold the position of General Secretary, replacing General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong who suddenly passed away on July 19, 2024.
To Lam served as President for more than 5 months, then, because General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong suddenly passed away, To Lam served as both President and General Secretary for more than 2 months, until October 21, 2024, To Lam stopped being President, only serving as Communist Party General Secretary, and the President was the Army General Luong Cuong.
Both positions of President and General Secretary of Comrade To Lam were very surprising, beyond the expectations of the Communist Party of Vietnam. Because Comrade Vo Van Thuong was elected President on March 2, 2023, at that time Comrade Thuong was only over 50 years old, still very young, so it was expected that Comrade Thuong would be President for at least another 10 years, so in the next 10 years, until 2035, no one would replace Comrade Thuong as President.
However, suddenly when investigating the corruption case of Phuc Son Company, it was discovered that Comrade Thuong was involved, so the Politburo disciplined and removed Comrade Thuong from office on March 21, 2024, after just 1 year and 19 days as President.
So suddenly the position of President was vacant.
Previously, there was a precedent that Minister of Public Security Tran Dai Quang was elected President (2016-2018), but comrade Quang suddenly fell ill and passed away, so now, Minister of Public Security To Lam was arranged by the party to be elected as State President, following in the footsteps of Minister of Public Security Tran Dai Quang, which is also normal.
Therefore, when comrade Thuong was suddenly removed from the position of President on March 21, 2024, of course, comrade To Lam was suddenly arranged and elected to be the State President to replace comrade Thuong, and of course, it was completely beyond the party’s expectations.
That is the arrangement of fate, the arrangement of history, not arranged by any individual, group, or faction.
In June 2024, Russian President Putin visited Vietnam, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong was still healthy, welcomed, chatted happily, shook hands warmly, tightly, and strongly with President Putin.
However, just over a month later, on July 19, 2024, suddenly Comrade Trong passed away, showing that the Council of Doctors, the Central Health Protection Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam was useless, only destructive, just a Central Health Destruction Committee.
Therefore, when General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong suddenly passed away, the General Secretary position suddenly became vacant.
At that time, time was urgent, the country could not lack a leader, so of course, the General Secretary position would go to President To Lam, because Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh could not become General Secretary immediately, because the Prime Minister had to run the Government. And the President is the second position after the Party General Secretary, according to the practice in our communist Vietnam country.
And National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man, who is from the South, cannot be transferred to become the General Secretary of Communist Party of Vietnam.
So President To Lam, a Northerner, is of course worthy of temporarily being the General Secretary for more than a year, until 2026, during the transition period before the 2026 Party Congress.
This is easily agreed upon by the Party Central Committee.
Therefore, the extraordinary Central Conference on August 3, 2024, was unanimously elected by the Central Conference to elect President To Lam as General Secretary, that is, President and General Secretary in the transitional period before the Party Congress in January 2026.
Once again, it was the arrangement of fate, the arrangement of the history of our Vietnam, not arranged by any individual, group, or faction.
Comrade General Secretary Trong never said that he wanted Minister of Public Security To Lam to replace him as General Secretary, because Comrade Trong has said many times that the position of General Secretary must be held by someone who has previously been a local secretary.
But Comrade To Lam has never been a local secretary, local leader.
Vietnamese public opinion still believes that General Secretary Trong expected National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue to replace him as General Secretary, not a police or military leader.
However, National Assembly Chairman Hue was suddenly disciplined and removed from his position due to corruption. Therefore, until his death, he was still struggling to find a replacement for him as General Secretary.
Among the members of General Secretary Trong’s Politburo, half were disciplined and removed from their positions due to corruption, showing that General Secretary Trong was very strict, fair, and straightforward in handling subordinates who committed violations.
But it also shows that the work of organizing cadres, training, selecting, and appointing cadres by General Secretary Trong and the Central Organization Committee – at that time headed by Comrade Pham Minh Chinh – did a very poor job, appointing bad people to lead the party and the country. However, later Comrade Pham Minh Chinh was transferred to become Prime Minister, without having to take responsibility for any mistakes in the leaders selecting work.
General Secretary Trong and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh must also take part of the responsibility for allowing more than half of the Politburo members to be disciplined for corruption, showing that the work of selecting and appointing cadres by Comrade Trong and Chinh was very poor, with many mistakes, allowing bad people to enter the Politburo.
We remember that in 1953 and 1954, when there were mistakes in the Land Reform, President Ho Chi Minh stood up publicly to take responsibility and apologize to the people.
But now the personnel work is full of mistakes, appointing corrupt people to the highest leadership of the Party and the State, but General Secretary Trong and Prime Minister Chinh did not take responsibility, and did not apologize to the people. They considered themselves outside the situation.
So it can be said that Comrade To Lam becoming President, then General Secretary, was completely unexpected, beyond the expectations of the Party, and of Comrade To Lam himself.
However, that is also normal, just like King Ly Thai To becoming king, starting the Ly Dynasty more than 1000 years ago, was also unexpected, beyond the expectations of the court at that time. In 1009, more than 1000 years ago, King Le Ngoa Trieu was depraved, suffered from hemorrhoids for many years, had to lie down to attend court, so history called him Le Ngoa Trieu, suddenly died when he was just over 20 years old, so at that time the court supported General Ly Cong Uan – formerly the Dien Tien Chi Huy Su, similar to the position of Chief of the Guard Department today, to become king, opening the glorious and prosperious Ly dynasty that lasted 225 years.
Therefore, if comrade To Lam was promoted to President, then General Secretary, thanks to the sudden dismissal of President Thuong, and then thanks to the sudden death of General Secretary Trong, it would be normal.
It was fate and the situation of Vietnam that decided that.
And to balance power and ensure unity within the party, after 2 months of holding the positions of President and General Secretary, Comrade To Lam has stopped being President from October 21, 2024, only holding the position of General Secretary, and the position of President was be held by General Luong Cuong.
Therefore, the current Four Pillars of leaders of the Vietnamese state are as follows:
– General Secretary To Lam, public security, North.
– President Luong Cuong, military, North,
– Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh- public security, North,
– National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man, civilian, South.
3 North, 1 South, the regional balance of North-Central-South is broken.
When comrade Tan Dung – from the South – became Prime Minister, comrade Tan Sang – from the South, then Minh Triet – from the South, became President, comrade Hong Anh – from the South became Minister of Public Security, then became Standing Member of the Secretariat, comrade Kim Ngan – from the South became Chairman of the National Assembly, in the period of 2006-2016, at that time, it seemed that the Party and State leadership was leaning towards the South – 4 Souths, only 1 North as General Secretary.
That imbalance was later corrected by General Secretary Trong, and the result today is that the pendulum of power is tilted a little too much towards the North, so perhaps that pendulum of power will have to be pushed back to the middle position of the balance between the 2 Souths and 2 Norths at the upcoming 14th Party Congress, January 2026.
General Secretary Trong has said many times that the balance of the North-Central-South regions is not important, but it is necessary to ensure that virtuous and talented people become leaders.
However, “it is said so, but it is not true“, because “it only takes the criteria of virtuous and talented people to become leaders, not the criteria of regions”, but why are there few virtuous and talented people, but so much corruption, leading cadres are falling from positions as like figs.
So “it is said so but it is not true” is like that.
The historical, cultural and social characteristics of our country Vietnam are divided into 3 distinct regions, with quite different accents and cultures, although they all speak Vietnamese, so “regional balance” is a natural and indispensable need in the leadership apparatus of our Party and State of Vietnam.
Only when the migration and immigration process in our country Vietnam increases further, diluting the regional characteristics and reducing the regional characteristics, then the regional power balance will be reduced.
That process is still a long way off.
Let’s look at how General Secretary To Lam appointed 2 leaders of his hometown of Hung Yen to lead the Ministry of Public Security and to be Head of the Central Inspection Committee, showing that not only regionalism, but also more narrowly, provincial compatriotism, within the province only, is still quite heavy in the appointment of cadres of our Communist Party of Vietnam today.
Currently, due to historical, economic, and political conditions, although no one intended it, suddenly, the Party and State leaders have too many people who come from the police force. In the current Politburo, there are up to 6 police officers: General Secretary, Prime Minister, Permanent Deputy Prime Minister, Head of the Central Internal Affairs Commission, Head of the Central Inspection Commission, Minister of Public Security-police.
The Head of the Central Organization Committee also has a police tendency, being the son of the former Minister of Public Security. Therefore, the police, and the police tendency in the leadership of the Party, State, and Government of Vietnam today, has up to 7 members.
There are only 3 in the military. The rest are civilians, holding minor, not very important positions in the country.
Our country has ended the war, it has been 40 years of peace, so letting the police, or the military lead the country is not normal.
Of course, the world has had similar stories like Vietnam, such as Russian President Putin was a former KGB security officer, US President Bush Sr. was also the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and US Secretary of Defense Gates under US President Bush Jr. was also the Director of the CIA.
But that’s all, other positions must be civilianized, for example, Russian President Putin in 2024 just appointed the position of Russian Defense Minister as a civilian Deputy Prime Minister.
Therefore, the current leadership of the Party and State of Vietnam is unbalanced, abnormal, that is, there are too many police officers leading the country, and there is no regional balance, and there is a heavy sense of compatriotism in Hung Yen province.
Therefore, I predict that next year, January 2026, the 14th Party Congress, there will be changes in the direction of rebalancing the leadership of the Party and State, to have more regional balance, and civilians will return to take the leadership of the Party and State.
We see that General Secretary To Lam is trying to work, serve the country, serve the people, boldly initiating the second Doi Moi, which is Administrative Reform, streamlining the administrative apparatus, merging ministries, branches, agencies, merging provinces, eliminating district and county levels, merging and reforming commune levels.
We hope that General Secretary To Lam’s second Doi Moi will be successful, and that To Lam will be re-elected as General Secretary at the Party Congress in January 2026.
Currently, among civilians in the Party, who is more capable of being General Secretary than Police Comrade To Lam, no one is worthy.
Therefore, at the Party Congress on January 14, 2026, if Police Comrade To Lam is not re-elected as General Secretary, there will be a stepping stone, possibly the military faction will return to take over the leadership of the Party.
After that, it will take a later term, the 15th Congress, in 2031, for civilians to return to take over the leadership of the Party and the State.
And to balance the regions, there is no one more worthy of being the Prime Minister than comrade Nguyen Thanh Nghi – the South, son of former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, currently Deputy Secretary of the Saigon Party.
Comrades who have retired from the Party and the State still have great influence in the Communist Party of Vietnam, such as in the North, there are former General Secretary Nong Duc Manh, former Chairman of the National Assembly Nguyen Sinh Hung, and two former Ministers of National Defense Pham Van Tra and Ngo Xuan Lich.
In the South, there are former leaders such as former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, two former Presidents Nguyen Minh Triet and Truong Tan Sang, former Minister of Public Security Le Hong Anh, former Chairwoman of the National Assembly Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan, and former Prime Minister-President Nguyen Xuan Phuc. Although comrade Phuc has been disciplined, his prestige in the South and Central regions is still very high.
Therefore, in the upcoming Four Pillars of the Court, in 2026, the opinions of the above former leaders are very important, and of course there will be a regional balance: 2 Norths, 2 Souths.
In the current Politburo, comrade President Luong Cuong and Minister of National Defense Phan Van Giang have the highest prestige, almost absolute prestige, supported by the majority of people and party members, and supported by previous leaders.
Therefore, I expect that comrades Luong Cuong and Phan Van Giang will be elected as leaders of the Party and the State at the 14th Congress in 2026.
The position of Prime Minister will have to be in the South to balance the 2 Souths and 2 Norths, so there is no one more worthy of the Prime Minister position than comrade Nguyen Thanh Nghi.
The Southern wing will enthusiastically support comrade Nghi.
If someone deliberately wants to steer and sway the Party Congress according to their own opinions, to serve their own interests, then it is very possible that those reckless actions will lead to a revolution as earth-shattering as the August Revolution in 1945.
Just wait. ///